What Makes a Narrative Tradeable
Not every narrative is worth trading.
Most ideas appear briefly and disappear just as fast. Narrative conviction only works when attention has the ability to persist and expand.
This page helps you decide whether a narrative qualifies for conviction holding at all.
Attention must repeat
A tradeable narrative shows repetition, not a single moment.
Look for:
multiple mentions over time
different accounts discussing the same idea
continued conversation after the initial post
people returning to the topic naturally
One tweet is noise. Repeated attention is signal.
If interest does not reappear, there is nothing to hold.
Participation must grow
Tradeable narratives attract new participants.
Signs of healthy participation include:
increasing replies and discussion
new people asking questions
organic memes and commentary
expanding community activity
If the same small group is talking to itself, expansion is limited.
The idea must survive pullbacks
Strong narratives do not break after the first pullback.
A narrative becomes tradeable when:
price pulls back but discussion continues
attention remains present during consolidation
interest does not disappear after volatility
If attention vanishes the moment price stalls, conviction is not justified.
The narrative must be understandable
Tradeable narratives are simple.
People should be able to explain the idea quickly and clearly.
If:
the narrative is confusing
requires heavy justification
needs constant explanation
It becomes harder for attention to spread.
Simplicity supports expansion.
Time matters more than speed
Narrative conviction favors persistence over intensity.
Be cautious when:
attention spikes aggressively once
price moves vertically immediately
discussion peaks and fades within hours
Fast attention can still work, but it often favors extraction over conviction.
Wallet behavior should support holding
While not required, supportive wallet behavior strengthens conviction.
Positive signs include:
early wallets holding through volatility
reduced rapid flipping
consistent positioning over time
If wallets dump immediately at every move, expansion may be fragile.
When a narrative is not tradeable
Avoid conviction trades when:
attention appears once and disappears
discussion feels forced
participation shrinks quickly
the idea loses relevance fast
In these cases, patience becomes a liability.
The final qualification question
Before committing, ask:
If I do nothing for several days, is this narrative likely to still matter?
If the answer is no, conviction holding is the wrong approach.